Incidencia de las exportaciones tradicionales y no tradicionales en el crecimiento económico del Perú, 1990–2023

Oscar Francisco    Samanamud-Loyola; Freddy Eutimio    Alzamora-Noreña; Lorenzo Federico     Reyna-Gonzales; Marco Antonio    Anton-De los Santos; Walter Rolando    Zarate-Tacca; Susana Patricia    Goycochea-Kcomt

doi:10.47606/ACVEN/PH0415

Authors

Oscar Francisco Samanamud-Loyola Universidad Nacional Federico Villarreal- Perú https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4012-1793
Freddy Eutimio Alzamora-Noreña Universidad Nacional Federico Villarreal- Perú https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1537-8781
Lorenzo Federico Reyna-Gonzales Universidad Nacional Federico Villarreal- Perú https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4373-9895
Marco Antonio Anton-De los Santos Universidad Nacional Federico Villarreal- Perú https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0910-7301
Walter Rolando Zarate-Tacca Universidad Nacional Federico Villarreal- Perú https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4624-1582
Susana Patricia Goycochea-Kcomt Universidad Nacional Federico Villarreal- Perú https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0907-0879

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47606/ACVEN/PH0415

Keywords:

Exports, economic growth, diversification, competitiveness

Abstract

This study examines the impact of traditional and non-traditional exports on Peru’s economic growth over the period 1990–2023. Using annual series from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI), and SUNAT, the analysis employs time-series models, including structural break tests and VEC/VAR specifications, to assess the dynamic relationship among variables. The study estimates elasticities, identifies differential effects according to the export basket composition, and evaluates variations across subperiods shaped by changes in Peru’s macroeconomic and trade environment. The findings indicate that export diversification exerts positive and statistically significant effects on GDP, highlighting the growing contribution of non-traditional exports to national economic performance. These results underscore the relevance of strengthening policies aimed at productive upgrading, sectoral linkages, and productivity enhancement, all of which are essential for sustaining long-term growth and reducing dependence on primary commodity exports.

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