Relación entre la tasa de interés real, el crecimiento del PBI y el crecimiento de la inversión privada en el Perú, 1991-2025

Teófilo   León Rivera; Andrés Jesús    Ramírez Laurente; José Joselito    Carhuaricra Cusipuma; Franklin Joel     León Zorrilla

doi:10.47606/ACVEN/PH0577

Authors

Teófilo León Rivera Universidad Nacional de Huancavelica, Perú https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6400-775X
Andrés Jesús Ramírez Laurente Universidad Nacional de Huancavelica, Perú https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2987-9325
José Joselito Carhuaricra Cusipuma Universidad Nacional de Huancavelica, Perú https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4595-9894
Franklin Joel León Zorrilla Universidad Nacional de Huancavelica, Perú https://orcid.org/0009-0005-6094-0082

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47606/ACVEN/PH0577

Keywords:

Private Investment, Real Interest Rate, Gross Domestic Product, unit root, econometric model, Peru.

Abstract

This study estimates the relationship between the real interest rate, GDP growth, and private investment growth in Peru, using annual information for 1991-2025 and econometric estimation for 1992-2025. A non-experimental time-series design was employed using data from the BCRP, INEI, and SBS. Private investment and GDP were transformed using first logarithmic differences to obtain stationary I(0) series. The model was estimated using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) with HC3 robust standard errors and Student's t inference with 31 degrees of freedom, given the presence of heteroskedasticity and the small sample size. The model presents an R² of 0.755 and an adjusted R² of 0.739. GDP growth shows a positive and statistically significant association with private investment growth (? = 2.563; p = 0.012), whereas the real interest rate shows a negative but statistically non-significant association (? = ?0.0002; p = 0.918). HAC standard errors confirm the robustness of the main conclusions. Given the possible simultaneity between GDP and private investment, the coefficients are interpreted as statistical associations rather than causal relationships. It is concluded that, during 1992-2025, private investment growth in Peru is associated primarily with aggregate economic activity.

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