Body mass index and probability of type 2 diabetes: A multiethnic approach in Ecuadorian population.

Abstract

Introduction: Overweight and obesity are significant risk factors in the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus, and their prevalence may vary depending on ethnicity and the sociodemographic characteristics of the populations. Objective: To analyze the relationship between body mass index and type 2 diabetes in a multiethnic adult population from northern Ecuador during the years 2023 and 2024. Materials and methods: A cross-sectional observational study was conducted, including 353 adults aged 18 to 64, classified into two groups based on the presence or absence of diabetes. Sociodemographic data were collected, and standardized anthropometric protocols were applied. Statistical analyses included normality test, Chi-square test, odds ratios, and non-parametric comparisons of medians across ethnic groups. Adjusted odds ratios derived from binary logistic regression were used to estimate the probability of disease per unit increase in BMI, stratified by ethnicity. Results: The mean BMI in the total sample was 26.6 ± 5.5 kg/m², with the indigenous group showing the highest values (27.2 ± 5.5 kg/m²). The overall prevalence of T2DM was 27.5%, with the highest rate observed in the Mestizo group (29.9%). A significant positive association between BMI and T2DM was observed in the total population (OR = 1.146; 95% CI: 1.053 – 1.249), as well as in the indigenous (OR = 1.181) and mestizo groups (OR = 1.146). The estimated risk per unit increase in BMI was more pronounced among mestizos. Conclusion: These findings reinforce the role of BMI as a relevant predictor of T2DM risk in multiethnic populations.